Who will win the World Cup?

Everyone has the same question on their minds: Who will win the 2026 World Cup?

Meanwhile, this question that everyone is focused on has also presented an opportunity to test the predictions of Artificial Intelligence applications. The World Cup, which will be played between June 11 and July 19 (in the USA, Canada, and Mexico), will draw the attention of the whole world to this tournament for 40 days.

According to FIFA and various sources, the 2026 World Cup is already a contender for the most-watched sporting event in history. Around 6 billion global viewers are expected to follow the tournament. The participation of 48 national teams for the first time has meant the excitement of the World Cup will be felt in many more countries globally.

It’s not just sports commentators who are making predictions about which country will win the World Cup; people are also making bets in everyday conversations. Many statistical models and betting markets favor Spain. The Goldman Sachs model, reported by Reuters, gives Spain the highest chance of winning.

In this article, we will focus on the predictions that artificial intelligence applications make regarding this issue.

Artificial intelligence is scientifically defined as a technology that enables computer systems to mimic human-specific abilities such as learning, reasoning, problem-solving, and decision-making. According to this definition, one of the functions of artificial intelligence is to make a diagnosis using all the data uploaded to the internet.

When searching for an answer to the question of who will win the World Cup, here are some of the evaluation criteria everyone should consider:

Data on the team’s current form. That is, performance in qualifying groups, the UEFA Nations League, and friendly matches played in the last two years. Criteria such as squad depth and fatigue. Because teams coming from easier groups may be fresher in later stages. Star players who make a difference. Teams that can quickly switch to different systems depending on the opponent’s characteristics. The impact of using home advantage. Injury status and player form.

Now let’s look at the answers given by AI applications to the question of who will win the World Cup:

ChatGPT’s prediction on this matter is as follows:

“If I had to make a single prediction, based on current form, squad quality, and expert models, Spain is the strongest contender.” Other countries favored by ChatGPT include France, England, Brazil, and Argentina.

According to GROK; Spain is currently the biggest favorite, followed by France.

According to GEMINI; the strongest favorites are France, Brazil, Argentina, Spain, and England. The dark horse favorites are Germany and Portugal.

According to DEEPSEEK; France and England are the biggest favorites for the tournament. Their models give France the highest probability of winning the championship at 14.5%, followed by England at 12.8%.

Based on current data and analysis, CLAUDE identifies France as the strongest contender to win the 2026 World Cup. Like all other AI applications, it cites the depth of the squad, the players’ club performances, and their championship history as reasons for this.

According to all these assessments, Spain and France are the most favored countries.

But that’s not the end of it. Of course, the favorite in people’s hearts isn’t always the same as the real favorite. There are times when dreams don’t match reality. Apart from the assessments of sports commentators and AI applications, those who closely follow football will naturally have their own personal predictions and their preferred candidates to win the cup. For example, as someone of Turkish origin, I dream of seeing my country of birth or the country I live in among the favorites.

World Cup excitement has begun in the streets. Flags of the participating countries are being sold side-by-side in squares and shops. We hope that this biggest and most exciting tournament in the world will begin and end without incident, witnessing displays of peace and friendship. Every international sporting event is a step towards world peace and the shared excitement and tranquility of humanity.

Political agendas should not be allowed to overshadow such wonderful events, as this can have irrational consequences. I would like to give an example. The fastest goal in World Cup history was scored by Turkish footballer Hakan Şükür. This historic goal was scored against host nation South Korea in the third-place match of the 2002 FIFA World Cup, just 10.8 seconds into the game.

         In Turkey today, no one can write or say, either on television or radio programs or in newspapers, that Hakan Şükür scored the fastest goal in World Cup history. Saying so becomes an accusation that could result in imprisonment. The reason for this is that this footballer did not support the Erdoğan regime, which is constantly criticized by the European Union for human rights violations. In fact, because of this, just like me, his assets were seized.

He is a very important football player. In Turkish football history, Hakan Şükür is the top scorer in the Super Lig, the highest-level league, with 249 goals. He is also the all-time leading scorer for the Turkish National Team with 51 goals. Although the World Cup is the main topic in all sports media these days, Hakan Şükür’s name is never mentioned in Turkey.

If someone is portrayed as anti-Erdoğan by pro-Erdoğan media, praising them and appreciating their achievements, no matter how successful they are in fields like science, art, or sports, is considered a crime. Just like it’s considered a crime for any of my books to be found in a reader’s home. Humanity must not allow political anger to overshadow sports, science, and art to this extent.

Let’s not prolong this. We hope that this tournament will also be remembered fondly in the future. Making the world a better place is in the hands of humanity itself. All that’s needed is for good people to act courageously. And for ill-intentioned politicians not to turn sport into a tool for political gain.

Written by Prof. Dr. Osman OZSOY