Cause-and-effect relationships are among the most striking aspects of historical events. Indeed, when discussing historical events, it is common to encounter interpretations such as, “If these events hadn’t happened, they wouldn’t have turned out this way.”

In fact, we see similar examples in the holy books of different religions. Some of these are examples of disasters sent by God to societies that have become tainted with sin and gone too far in their depravity. In other words, if a society oversteps its bounds in a certain matter, the consequences it faces will not be surprising.

When we examine wars between states throughout history, we see a certain cause-and-effect relationship. However, the real reason for the war and the issue used as a pretext for starting it often differ.

Everyone knows the reason why the First World War started, a war that affected the fate of the entire world and caused the deaths of millions of people. The assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian Empire, by a Serbian nationalist in Sarajevo on June 28, 1914, was the trigger and pretext for this war. Between 15 and 20 million people died in this terrible war. Even if this assassination had not taken place, historians agree that this war was inevitable sooner or later.

Historically, there’s a truth to this: even if wars are started under a pretext, they are usually the result of a combination of multiple factors. Therefore, attributing wars to a single cause is not always realistic. If we were to list the factors that can lead to wars briefly, we could write the following:

– Economic Interests,

– Ideological and Religious Differences,

– Balance of Power and Security Concerns,

– Conflicts Based on Nationalism, Ethnicity, and Identity,

– Historical Enmities and the Quest for Revenge,

– The Efforts of Leaders Unable to Solve Internal Problems to Divert Attention to External Enemies

Without a doubt, these substances can greatly increase the effect.

It is also true that the influence of the media on society has increased significantly in the last century. Perception management has become a field of study. Modern historians argue that among the causes that triggered the First and Second Gulf Wars, the gradual preparation of world public opinion through the media played a major role. Moreover, the incredible increase in the influence of social media in the last 20 years has led to events that act as triggers in social events becoming uncontrollable.

The increasing popularity of far-right or far-left parties in many democratic countries over the last 10-15 years, and their even coming to power in some, has raised concerns about the possibility of new conflicts emerging on a global scale.

On February 19, 1992, I wrote an article titled “NUCLEAR NIGHTMARE” in the Turkish newspaper ZAMAN. I explained that major powers, due to their possession of nuclear weapons, did not dare to engage in a direct conflict or war with each other because they could not risk the devastating consequences that would trigger an apocalypse. However, I emphasized that this situation was not enough to stop conflicts of interest. Unable to fight each other, major powers try to secure their control in countries they wish to control by supporting different groups and dragging them into conflict. This is what happened in Afghanistan in the last quarter-century. What is happening in Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine is not much different. Those fighting in the geography of other countries are actually great powers that do not belong to those lands.

Even states that boast about the strength of democracy in their own countries see no problem in supporting dictatorships and monarchies when their own interests are at stake, and they see no problem in serving those interests. They turn a blind eye to human rights violations in those places. Their approach to the regime in Turkey and to some dictatorships in the Middle East and Africa constitutes different examples of this.

At the beginning of this article, we said that similar causes often produce similar results. Of course, no one desires humanity to trigger an apocalypse with its own hands and completely end life on Earth. However, as long as the greed of “it’s all mine” dominates state policies instead of fair distribution, not only a third world war, but also a tenth, even a fiftieth world war, will be inevitable in the future. Moreover, space wars have ceased to be a science fiction film and have become a potential risk.

The solution to all potential problems lies in acknowledging and respecting the fact that others have just as much right to live as we do.

Written by Prof. Dr. Osman OZSOY