While some of Trump’s pronouncements may seem childish to the world, it’s not difficult to see that beneath them lies a new global political reality that thrives on tension and seeks to profit from it.

Advances in AI-powered technology and the growing energy needs of expanding economies have brought the world to the brink of a new global upheaval. Countries are seeking new positions in world politics. Trump’s prominence in this process stems from his openly expressing his thoughts. However, it’s also difficult to say that Trump’s policies have had no impact on American government and society.

If what is happening today had happened in the past, Trump’s promise to make Canada the 51st state or his statement about taking Greenland would have been perceived as a declaration of war. But because the person saying it is Trump, who is perceived as a tabloid figure, it loses its impact.

But to understand what is happening today, we need to go back a bit in recent history to see that the issue has an aspect that goes beyond Trump and to analyze it in depth.

On September 22, 1985, the G5 countries (USA, Japan, West Germany, France, and Great Britain) signed a currency agreement at the Plaza Hotel in New York City, aimed at devaluing the American dollar. At the time, the US had a large trade deficit. This agreement systematically devalued the American dollar and increased the value of the Japanese yen. The appreciation of the Japanese yen weakened Japan’s export power, a situation that affected Japan for decades to come.    Indeed, Japan, which shone like a star in the third quarter of the 20th century, began to rapidly lose its former glory after those developments. The Gulf War in 1990 dealt a second blow to Japan, which was already dependent on foreign energy sources, and Japan’s star began to fade rapidly. Japanese politics was also affected by the economic situation. While Japanese prime ministers served for many years during periods of economic stability, frequent changes of prime minister began when the economy faltered.

China is seeking countermeasures..

China, a rising economy today, learned a lesson from this past experience of Japan. To prevent potential currency fluctuations from affecting the Chinese economy, it quickly began selling off American bonds and stockpiling gold.

Knowing the impact of the 1990 Gulf War on the Japanese economy through energy markets, China does not want a similar impact from the current conflict between the US and Iran to jeopardize its economy. It is taking precautions quietly but effectively, aiming to prevent the US’s long-term influence as a key player in financial markets from putting Chinese markets at risk.

The United States is the world’s most indebted country. However, it is also the only country whose external debt is denominated solely in its own currency. The US Federal Reserve has the power to print and inject as much dollar currency into the market as it wants, whenever it wants. Instead of implementing austerity policies that many countries sometimes need, the American government meets its own needs by printing dollars. This is one reason why the American administration is not afraid of its country’s large debt burden. As of August 2026, the total US public debt is approximately $40.21 trillion (debt per capita is approximately $120,000).

However, these traditional policies cannot be sustained indefinitely, and the world cannot tolerate them in the long run. This is because the monetary value of the debt that other countries have given to America in the form of goods and services is steadily decreasing. Seeing this, China has doubled the rate at which it has divested itself of American bonds in the last six months.This is where Trump comes in. By keeping the world on edge every day, he shakes up economic markets and wants to accelerate the flight from the US dollar, thereby lowering its value. He wants to reduce the real value of his global debt as well. Meanwhile, he wants to use tariffs as leverage against the world to achieve favorable economic results for the US.

Meanwhile, another critical point is this: AI-powered robotic facilities have the potential to put millions of people out of work, but conversely, lead to a product boom. As the value of money decreases, inflation will rise. The value of everything that becomes abundant, including wages, will decrease. This situation will increase the focus of individuals, institutions, and even governments who can foresee the future on physical assets that have value. Investments in basic necessities such as housing and energy will increase. For example, one of the reasons for the increase in house prices in many countries today is Chinese investors.

Moreover, this is not the first time this has happened.

The economy of what was then called West Germany was also experiencing high growth similar to the Japanese economy in the 1970s and 1980s. In fact, I discussed this in detail in an article titled “The footsteps of a powerful Germany are being felt.” (ALMANYA’NIN AYAK SESLERİ) published in the Zaman newspaper in Turkiye on January 30, 1992.

However, the US took a different approach to curbing the German economy during that period. The Yalta Conference and the Potsdam Agreement of 1945 divided Germany into two separate states with occupation zones. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989, the reunification of the two Germanys was approved.

This reunification was formalized on October 3, 1990. The economic cost of Germany’s reunification in 1990, namely the money the federal government spent on developing the eastern states, exceeded 2 trillion euros (or 3 trillion euros with interest, according to some estimates). These expenditures slowed down the German economy’s global competitiveness and R&D spending.

We are witnessing another example of this today. Since the early 2000s, as Russia’s economic power rapidly increased and it emerged as a leading global player, there are even claims that its attack on Ukraine was condoned in order to diminish Russia’s global competitiveness. This situation resembles the American policies that allowed Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait and then aimed to reshape the world. Ukraine’s border with Europe has made European countries uneasy about security, necessitating a more involved role for European Union countries than for the United States.

To think that the tension in the world stems solely from Trump would be to underestimate the historical processes we are going through. As we head towards a new upheaval in world politics and economics, perhaps Trump’s reckless approaches will also help other countries open their eyes early. Because it is becoming increasingly clear that the established order in the world is not sustainable.

The issue goes beyond the debate over the name of Lake Ontario. These symbolic discussions hold profound meaning. Countries that can take timely and appropriate steps in the face of escalating global tensions will survive in the world of tomorrow. Those who remain stuck in the present will be fighting a life-or-death battle. In this regard, we need strategic steps regarding what we should do, rather than focusing solely on what Trump has done.

By Prof. Dr. Osman OZSOY