25 years ago, two scientists made a bet worth 500 million USA Dollars. The bet was about how long humans would live in the future. The scientists making the bet were Professor Steven Austed, author of the book “Why Do We Age?”, and Professor S. Jay Olshansky, author of “The Immortality Quest.”

Professor Austed bets that there will be people 150 years old in 2150, while Professor Olshansky believes that the upper limit of human lifespan will be at most 130. The bet is scheduled to conclude on January 1, 2150.

By the year 2150, Steven Austed will be 204 years old, and Jay Olshansky will be 196. At this point, the question that immediately comes to mind is what will happen to this bet if these scientists don’t live until then.

The two scientists were so confident in their predictions of future human lifespans that they signed a 500$ million contract without hesitation. Indeed, the contract established a bank account on January 1, 2001. They agreed that 150$ would be deposited into the account each month during their lifetime, and 150$ would be deposited into the account each month after their death.

Since these two scientists will likely be dead by that time, the question of how the winner of the bet will be determined may arise. This is also included in the details of the contract.

On January 1, 2150, three scientists from the American Academy of Emerging Sciences will conduct a global study. They will prove, with official documentation, who the world’s longest-living person is. This will reveal the winner. The winning scientist’s heirs will receive the accumulated funds, expected to reach 500$ million with interest. If, at that time, it is determined that the winning scientist has no surviving heirs, the 500$ million prize will be donated to universities.

I covered the entire article up to this point in my column titled “The 500$ Million Bet” in Tercüman, one of Turkey’s most established newspapers, nearly 20 years ago. Because everyone wanted to live longer, the article attracted considerable attention at the time. I’ve been following this bet between two scientists since my article published on March 16, 2006.

Let’s come to the latest situation in this bet between two scientists..

Exactly 10 years after my article in the newspaper, there has been a new development in the bet. Jan Vijg, a professor in the Department of Genetics at Albert Einstein College of Medicine in New York, published a study suggesting that the maximum human lifespan in the future would be approximately 115 years. Even this research didn’t dissuade the two scientists from their bet.

Even this research didn’t deter the two scientists from their bet. In 2016, they renewed their bet. They agreed to deposit $300, not 150$, into their bank accounts every month. Professor Austad is optimistic, particularly based on advances in anti-aging technologies, while Professor Olshansky takes a more cautious approach, believing such an extension is unlikely based on current scientific data. As of 2025, the bet remains open. It won’t be settled until 2150.

Human lifespan has increased significantly over the last 30 years thanks to advances in medicine. Globally, life expectancy at birth was approximately 65 years in 1990, but today it has risen to 75. This represents an increase of approximately 10 years. Whether this increase will continue or what will happen in 2150 is impossible to predict.

Professor Richard Miller argues that simply reducing calorie intake can extend lifespan by 40 percent, while Professor Aubrey de Grey argues that within 30 to 40 years, natural death will be eradicated and old age forgotten. Governments in many countries argue that retirement ages should be moved up, citing the increasing average lifespan.

Those born on the date this article is published (i.e., September 2025) will be 125 years old in 2150. If I don’t die, I will be 185 years old 😊.

Who do you think will win this bet between two professors? Professor Austed, who says there will be 150-year-olds by the year 2150, or Professor Olshansky, who says the human lifespan will never exceed 130?

Do you have a different prediction? Or are you one of those who say that humanity won’t even see those days with the current bad trajectory?

Written by Prof. Dr. Osman OZSOY